CSM6 is an important point of reference when trying to determine how many votes you're going to need to get onto CSM7. There were nearly 50000 votes cast for the CSM6 elections. To get onto CSM6 as an alternate required 920 votes. The bottom of CSM6's top seven had 2200 votes.
(CSM7 is a tad different than CSM6. Still fourteen members, but the alternate designation is now gone. As well, only the top seven candidates get invited to Iceland for the summits.)
There's far more interest in the CSM than at anytime in EVE's history. To get (what was once called) an alternate's seat on CSM7 is going to require well more than 920 votes. To get into the Circle of Seven will require more than 2200 votes. How many more votes though? That's an unknown, but some conservative guesses can be made.
I feel a 25% increase in election interest is conservative. That means ~62500 votes will be cast for CSM7. There will likely be a 25% increase in candidates, mostly from empire space (all of whom will be on the ballot, because Goons and Test will give them all their 100 likes, simply because it will flood the field with candidates and split like hell empire space voting.) To get into the Circle of Seven likely won't require more votes than last year, perhaps 10% more (so ~2500 votes to get into the CSM's top seven), whereas to get into the final alternate seat will require that extra 25% (due to the sheer number of candidates, and having to compete with already well-known incumbents with a base already backing them); so, ~1250 votes to get in the CSM door at all.
What does Kelduum have for numbers? We can look back to the CSM Crowdsourcing vote, where Kelduum rallied his Unistas to vote in a particular way. He made that process as simple as it could get for the University members, and of 2000 members at the time 590 participated in the crowdsourcing. Apathy won't be as high for this vote as it was for the last, plus Kelduum is certainly going to impress upon unistas, ex- and not ex-, to get out the vote as often as he can. The University currently has 1500 members. I believe he has 900-1200 votes in the bag (unistas, ex-unistas, plus available alt accounts thereof.)
That still leaves him 250-400 votes short of a CSM seat. These are votes he'll have to compete for out in the wild. His chances of getting into the Circle of Seven are slim at best, but getting in the door itself is a definite possibility. (If he does get in the door, the outlook for CSM8 and Circle of Seven are much rosier.) With Ripard Teg finally declaring that he will not run, Kelduum should have breathed a sigh of relief. Kelduum's chances of capturing any votes outside of his University base would have been next to nil with Ripard in the race.
Kelduum's main problem at the moment is exposure. Outside of University circles he keeps a very low profile. Not many outside of the Uni-machine have any idea who he is. Nearly everyone playing EVE Online knows about EVE University, far far fewer of those players have any idea who its CEO is. He does at least have the advantage of using the University brand to his advantage in this regard, in getting empire folks to listen to what it is he has to say.
Unfortunately, even within the University, Kelduum is not the great communicator. When he does muster up the effort to do so, he does reasonably well at conveying a message. It's just that he doesn't do it all that often. He's a better manager than politician. It might even be fair to say that he feels uncomfortable in the communication role; he generally leaves that to his directors. Again, he's a good manager.
He knows he has to make the effort. He realizes that his Uni-base alone will most likely be unable to carry him into a CSM seat; he will need the vote from folks unaffiliated with the University. He's already begun the process of getting his message out.
It will continue to interest me as his campaign progresses. I'm certainly less bearish, more bullish on his prospects as a good CSM representative (of which I will get to in a post in a few days.)
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