the following today: "More votes have been cast in this election in the first 24 hours than were cast in total in any of the first four elections. Impressive!"
Of course, that's CSM1, CSM2, CSM3, and CSM4. There wasn't a lot of awareness back then, or even player interest, in the CSM. CSM1, for instance, had 24652 votes total. CSM7, in the first twenty-four hours, has had approximately 26500 votes cast, compared to the approximately 15000 votes cast in the first twenty-four hours of the CSM6 election.
I'll be closely following the numbers as the election progresses, but it's looking like the total CSM7 vote count could easily and handily outstrip the CSM6 total vote count of 49096.
What does this mean? If you're not pulling from a broad cross-section of voters, the likelihood of getting a CSM seat is going to be much harder than in previous CSM elections. Unless your voting base is Goon- or Test-sized, it is going to take a clever and well-run campaign to get onto the CSM, much less the Circle of Seven.
Take a candidate such as Kelduum Revaan, who was hoping to pull votes from beyond his core constituency (the members of EVE University.) If the total CSM7 vote count hits 65000 (perhaps even more), then on the E-Uni vote alone his chances of getting into the Circle of Seven are almost nil. His chances of getting any CSM seat on the E-Uni vote are dwindling (a respectable chance, still, although no longer guaranteed.)
Is Kelduum pulling votes from outside of EVE University? Judging from the support posts on his campaign thread -- all the I Voted For You Kelduum bumps -- it would appear he did not make any headway into the wider EVE Online playerbase. That's not a positive sign at all. Is the EVE University bloc large enough on its own to ride Kelduum to a bottom-seven seat, given that there's a reasonable probability that an additional 15000-20000 accounts are going to cast votes this year?
Why wasn't he able to break through to the larger population of players? Was it his widely panned war declaration proposal? Or The Mittani calling out one of Kelduum's more worrying suggestions? My continued criticisms of EVE University and lately of his campaign? His weak performances in the podcasts he attended? The lack of serious endorsements? Whatever the reason(s), his message did not catch on with the playerbase.
Now consider someone like Hans Jagerblitzen. This guy has solid ideas, performed like a champ in every podcast he attended, ran his campaign with aplomb and maturity, and has serious endorsements on twenty or so blogs. His core base, the faction warfare crowd, is larger than EVE University in population. That alone would guarantee Hans a seat. Not only that, he's pulling votes from every corner of Empire space. Hans is almost assured a seat in the Circle of Seven.
Two candidates with large bases, but the difference is whether either candidate can transcend that base. Hans Jagerblitzen has. So far it is looking as though Kelduum has not.