CSM7 - Predictions

Voting begins in less than a week. March 07 2012 to be exact. Voting will continue until March 21 2012.

So who's going to finish where in the available fourteen CSM seats? Within the Circle of Seven? The lower seven?

Unfortunately, there is no simple way to perform opinion polling in EVE Online. Our only metric, currently, is the nomination period, where candidates received forum likes. An inexact metric, certainly, but not statistically insignificant.

Certainly there were people who gave likes to nearly every candidate, under the strategy that many candidates splits non-bloc voting, thus making it easier for the blocs to gain the control they desire. There are also people who simply gave likes to the one or more candidates who they're interested in maybe throwing a vote. It's this second group who are statistically significant. Whereas the likes each candidate received are inflated due to the first group, those strategic nominations cancel each other out. The second group adds clarity to the final tally of likes.

Here are the current top twenty candidates by likes received. It's my feeling that anyone who falls outside the top twenty has little chance of getting a seat on the CSM.

1. The Mittani (1401)
2. Dovinian (738)
3. Two step (658)
4. Meissa Anunthiel (610)
5. Hans Jagerblitzen (594)
6. Seleene (594)
7. Elise Randolph (546)
8. Greene Lee (539)
9. UAxDEATH (517)
10. riverini (439)
11. Kelduum Revaan (423)
12. Voloses (387)
13. Fon Revedhort (331)
14. Trebor Daehdoow (279)
15. Alekseyev Karrde (253)
16. Prometheus Exenthal (237)
17. Mintrolio (221)
18. Lyris Nairn (215)
19. Sollana (201)
20. Issler Dainze (189)

So, that list there is the unofficial nomination-based prediction.

My personal prediction differs. I'll explain each candidate and my reasoning on their position in brief.

1. The Mittani
This is a given and requires no explanation other than "Goonswarm is largest and most motivated bloc."

2. Two step
One of the hardest workers on CSM6. Is very visible in the community. Much popularity. He also has most of the w-space vote.

3. Seleene
Another visible and hard-working CSM6 incumbent. He's doing some genius campaigning on non-EVE-O forums.

4. Dovinian
The TEST bloc is strong, though not nearly as motivated as Goonswarm.

5. Hans Jagerblitzen
Has demonstrated a very keen insight in empire mechanics and will garner a lot of votes as the empire candidate. Has had exemplary debates and interviews on EVE podcasts. Has been effectively visible and available to the voters on the forums and in-game. If faction warfare and lowsec players are motivated this season, they'll push him into a top seven seat. Has earned praise and support from many commentators, spectators and incumbents.

6. UAxDEATH
The Russian bloc candidate and an incumbent.

7. Elise Randolph
Another CSM6 incumbent with a good reputation. Solid reputation and support.

8. Lyris Nairn
The other Goonswarm candidate. The one that will get the votes from the fourth, fifth and sixth alt accounts.

9. Kelduum Revaan
Some of the likes he received were from ex-Unistas who do not plan to vote for him, but rather their personal concerns -- they threw him likes to show support. Some other Unistas will vote their futures, where they want to be versus where they currently are at the moment. Some more Unistas just won't vote at all - apathy, they don't care for the meta-game, etc. Kelduum should still get a seat, though. There are more than enough Unistas and ex-Unistas who will vote for him on multiple accounts. He's getting very little vote outside of the University sphere. Outside of the University, most commentators are suggesting that he'd be a bad choice for the council.

10. Alekseyev Karde
Another visible and available empire candidate. Mostly an unknown, though has made serious inroads due to stellar performances in audio podcasts and on the forums. Strong ideas from a capable candidate. Like Hans, is earning the kudos of many of his peers.

11. Trebor Daehdoow
As hard working as Trebor might be (and everyone says that he is), he's not particularly visible. He made splashes during CSM6, where he'd be everywhere, then he'd disappear again for long stretches. This election season he's been pretty muted and his campaign seems to be built around the fact that he was on CSM6 and that he worked hard. Boring platform, dude. He's going to have to do better. Especially since Kelduum is stealing most of his votes this year. Unless he steps it up, his political fortunes are waning.

12. Greene Lee
Another Russian bloc candidate.

13. Riverini
Should just scrape into the CSM. He has his fans. He was looking at a top seven or eight seat until his Lost in EVE interview, where he proceeded to offer up some bewildering proposals for bounties and other mechanics.

14. Mintrolio
If you speak fluent Tehgoatstanian, as I do, then Mintrolio's "good poastings" and platform are not quite the mystery they are to most people. He'll get some votes because most people see him as the whack-a-doodle candidate. He'll get some votes because he's popular at EN24. He'll get some votes from folks who are familiar with his native tongue and know that his ideas and viewpoints are serious and sound. He does have to make himself more visible from here on out, even if writing Tehgoatstanian is tiring. My darkhorse candidate.