One of the commanders on the opposing side of this mock battle gets it into his head to gather a bit of intel, to jump the gun. Be proactive. He determines where Clive Wynne-Candy will be before the start of "hostilities" with the intent to capture him. And he successfully does so.
Clive, faced with what he sees as insubordination and unsportsmanlike tactics, starts blustering loudly "War starts at midnight! War starts at midnight!"
The lesson being, there are no rules to war. No sportsmanlike conduct.
I'm quite convinced that the surprise will not be that Goonswarm and Test go to war, but rather when the war begins.
There are quite a few that believe strongly that the leadership in both alliances will never let war come to pass. There are others that believe that a "shooting off some steam" battle is inevitable, but will contain a bunch of rules and regulations, off-limit systems and the like. Two forces this size, I don't think any such rules would hold for long.
I think an all-out war is likely to happen in 2013. I think the posturing, especially from the Test side of the equation, is already beginning. I don't think Goonswarm leadership is all that interested in war. They've nothing to prove. They're the famous, much-respected parent in this relationship. Test, on the other hand, is the underachieving child, always living in the shadow of the parent, people always wondering if they'll ever amount to half as much as the parent. Test, has something to prove, even if only to themselves.
So, the other day, the escalation in posturing began. What began as a Test/Fatal Ascension squabble, well, those tendrils are beginning to creep out further afield. A Jabber broadcast to the Test faithful went out:
We are disabling all CFC access to our jabber. Diplomatic inquiries through J5 indeed. This is keeping with the tradition of petty escalation and overreaction that we all know and love so much.What does all this mean? Nothing yet. But where there's posturing on one side, it usually doesn't take the other side long to up the ante (or to fold their hand altogether.)
But, to adapt to this new environment we've created a new group called CFC (VIP). This will be exclusively used for CFC chillbros that we want to keep around. Reply with recommendations for CFC duders to add to the list.
I'd recommend you all delete API keys in Goon services.
Some are thinking that Goonswarm may have folded to Test's raise, when today the following broadcast went out from Razor to their members:
RAZOR HAS BEEN RESET BY MUCH OF THE CFC, I SUGGEST YOU STAY DOCKED. BECAUSE OF THRASHER. YOU'RE WELCOME.So far, nobody is quite sure what is going on here. As of this writing, Razor Alliance is still set blue to Goonswarm Federation. It may be a case of other CFC member alliances overreacting. According to sources (Fweddit membership is so broad, that, yeah, I got me sources), Razor started attacking blues with a Thrasher fleet. Except, this should not be a problem. It's an old Goonswarm tradition that blue-on-blue violence is okay in Thrasher fleets. So it might just be a case of CFC member alliances not being aware of the tradition.
Some think it might be Goonswarm trying to provoke Razor into doing something stupid, so that their space can be given to somebody else. Test Alliance, for instance. An offering to stop Test aggression. Test is tech-poor, compared to the CFC. So their posturing may simply be towards getting some valuable tech for themselves. I see this as a bit far-fetched and convoluted.
In my opinion, the Razor problem is unrelated to anything happening with Test and Goonswarm at the moment. The Razor situation, whatever it is, has likely already sorted itself out.
(Edit: See comments for more more information on the temporary Razor reset.)
As for Test's removal of the CFC from their intel channels, and the recommendation that Test members remove their API keys from Goon services, well, that's interesting and I'm curious how this might escalate further.
***
One thought on Pandemic Legion. I think Test puts more faith in the Honey-Badger Coalition than Pandemic Legion ever has. I think the HBC has mostly been a Green Card marriage from Pandemic's perspective. Their ticket to some good, low risk, fights.
If war did break out between the CFC and HBC, and if Pandemic Legion's technetium moons were put under threat, I think it would take less than a heartbeat for Pandemic Legion to file for divorce, and then sue for peace with the CFC.
Pandemic Legion is not the sort of group that would ever put their income at risk for a conflict they're not invested in. Pandemic Legion has never been invested in much beyond their own well-being.
Talk to people involved before wildly speculating, tia.
ReplyDeleteHow dull would that be?
DeleteHmmm yes, indeed
ReplyDeleteUsually your insights are pretty solid, but I regret to inform that in nullsec you're slightly off the mark, at least this time. Test would never move to Tenal, Goons would never supplant Razor with Test, and if they did they wouldn't have to trump up Thrasergate to do it.
ReplyDeleteThe PL-HBC link is strong, don't forget that PL and Test created the HBC and then spent six months systematically dismantling what was once considered the second strongest coalition. And, of course, strengthening the HBC along the way. That kind of relationship tends to build a healthy bromance.
Although many hope otherwise, the CFC-HBC war is nowhere near the horizon. Perhaps a no-tech-no-sov browar, but that's about it. Sorry to burst any bubbles~
I was throwing out other folk's hypotheses on Razorgate ... from a conversation earlier in the day.
DeleteI finished with my own take: "The Razor problem seems unrelated to anything happening with Test and Goonswarm at the moment. And it's likely already sorted itself out."
"Although many hope otherwise, the CFC-HBC war is nowhere near the horizon. Perhaps a no-tech-no-sov browar, but that's about it."
DeleteBecause at the first sign that tech is in danger, PL will bail hard on the HBC.
"Although many hope otherwise, the CFC-HBC war is nowhere near the horizon."
DeleteThanks for making EvE such an utterly boring game.
"Although many hope otherwise, the CFC-HBC war is nowhere near the horizon. Perhaps a no-tech-no-sov browar, but that's about it."
DeleteThat's quite gay and it makes the game all the more boring when 80% of nullsec alliances are more or less blue. They will spawn a new generation of nullbears which will be the death of this game.
"Because at the first sign that tech is in danger, PL will bail hard on the HBC."
That actually makes me want to see someone take it away from them. Make 'em sweat.
PL isn't as motivated by tech as you'd think. I mean it being there is great, don't get me wrong, but we took it assuming we'd have it for six months. Two years ago~
DeleteBut after the GSF update, HBC-CFC tensions are riding higher than I expected, so you may have predicted glorious battle. I'm going to remain skeptical until it happens, but expect some small nonsov fighting to pick up.
Why would Goonswarm replace RAZOR with TEST when - according to you - they'd have to expect TEST to attack them in 2013?
ReplyDeleteI've been saying for almost a year now that any attack on the CFC would have to start by convincing some of theCFC's 2nd/3rd tier members to switch sides very early on in the war.
However, Goonswarm's Corps Diplomatique seems to do a great job at balancing interests and the chances of victory over the CFC would have to appear very high to make members risk their current secure & financially cozy position under the GSF hegemony.
TEST are not known for their skillfull diplomats - in contrast to Goonswarm's mediation-based approach TEST's reaction to any issues within their coalition seems invariably to be increase control, throw some ISK at the problem, while keeping a finger hovering over the 'reset' button (BDEAL, TJA, TRIBE, ...)
I would expect GSF to split the HBC with ease in the prelude to a war between CFC and HBC - getting the new TEST pets (TRIBE, Squee, Li3, ...) to distance themselves from the influence of Montolio (which they have to be wary of already) by forming their own coalition (initially connected to the HBC with a NIP) while trying to find attractive independent solutions for the old guard (a juicy contract against the Russians for INIT, maybe Raiden could go to N3, ...).
Trying to separate PL from TEST (through anything other than boredom) would imho be almost impossible to achieve and probably not necessary to level the playing field.
Once I see the HBC fracturing I'll believe that CFC vs HBC is a thing.
I can't honestly see the HBC splitting the CFC (though there might be deep running grudges witghin the CFC that I am not aware of) and I can't see the CFC taking on the HBC in its current state head-on.
I was throwing out other folk's hypotheses on Razorgate ... from a conversation earlier in the day.
DeleteI finished with my own take: "The Razor problem seems unrelated to anything happening with Test and Goonswarm at the moment. And it's likely already sorted itself out."
I don't think Razorgate amounts to anything. Others thought it might be a ploy to kick Razor, so that the space could be given to Test, thus ending their aggression. The figured Test might be threatening war unless they were given some tech space. I think it's a bit far-fetched.
Razor was doing a themed roam, and prearranged a reset. There is no diplomatic incident. Relax, drama llamas...
DeleteYou're proposing that TEST are going to start a war that they very likely couldn't win, a war which would be horrendously expensive, just for our reputation? The idea that TEST cares that much about what other people think is.. laughable. The opinions of the high/low players such as yourself don't really matter, and if any of TEST's enemies did believe that then I'd call it a pretty fucking awesome advantage. And when you realize this, you'll see that neither side has any good reason to want a sovwar.
ReplyDeleteEvery year razor does a thrasher fleet. They've done it since time before time. The thrasher fleet knows no standings. It's a fun even with fn arty thrashers and they announce it before hand. The usual reaction is to temp neut them until the event is over. They even Qicia even announced it in the dek intel channel. The only complaint I really heard was that this year they didn't provide enough announced warning.
ReplyDeleteTLDR, nothing to see here...move along.
The only problem with Razor is: they are too greedy carebears.
ReplyDeleteThey were already in the old NC some of the alliances, who had pets. MM had no pets. Even if some blue guys wanted to do something in the holy Razor space, Razor charged them with fees. The problem is, Goons let them do this, like NC let them do this. In NC Razor was one of the two main alliances. In CFC Razor is just a minor alliance.
It was the yearly RAZOR trasher shoot-blues fleet.
ReplyDeleteIt was eventually killed by a RAZOR disco fleet.