Mainly I'm surprised that people are surprised that there's conflict brewing between these two coalitions.
That the HBC and the CFC would eventually bear arms against each other seemed inevitable back when Test Alliance made a big deal about getting out from under the shadow of Goonswarm.
There comes a time in the life of every young boy, when they want to be defined on their own terms, not always in comparison or relation to the parent. That time came for Test during their war in the south, their takeover of Delve, Querious and Period Basis. They'd outgrown their Goonswarm pet status.
So when Test declared they were no longer of the CFC, that they were standing on their own as the HBC, people didn't quite believe it. And even as the conflicts and conquests of the CFC and the HBC became separate, people still saw them as close allies. One coalition inexorably tied to the other. The CFC was certainly not the HBC, but people continued to see the HBC as just an extension of the CFC.
The only sure way to break those invisible bonds is via some grand rebellion. The more that Test Alliance argues against old perceptions, the old ties back to Goonswarm, the more inevitable conflict has to become. The only sure way to convince people that these are now two distinct entities is for war to come between them.
Goonswarm is always going to think Test will need them. That no matter how hard they try to distance themselves from the relationship, they rely on the knowledge that Goonswarm is there, waiting to bail them out.
Test is convinced it can stand on its own. It's powerful enough and large enough that the batphone can be disconnected permanently.
One of the two groups is right. It's not really about convincing the masses outside the HBC, it's about convincing the HBC itself. "Are we really free from Goonswarm's chains?"
Conflict wipes the slate clean of misconceptions. Or it makes visible the obvious truth.
I'm sure Test hasn't gone out of its way to create conflict. But some small slight that would have been solved lickity-split just a year ago, today it's a wound that cannot heal. The psychology of wanting to escape the shadow of the parent is going to fester the slightest scrape into a full-blown wound.
The question is not will the HBC and CFC come to serious blows, but when will it happen. Today's squabble between Test and Fatal Ascension might resolve itself, but that just opens the door to a larger squabble tomorrow.
Both coalitions are in a period of peace. There's little for the CFC to do up north. There's little for the HBC to do down south. Conflict is likely sooner rather than later. Under a period of boredom, the smallest slight can escalate.
I hope you're right, because a blue nullsec is no fun for anybody. But put me in the camp that will be surprised if there is major, serious conflict between these two coalitions. Their cultural values are just too similar.
ReplyDelete"Their cultural values are just too similar."
DeleteThat's a driving force towards conflict. One group with roots in SomethingAwful. The other with roots in Reddit. Both groups feel they're superior in many ways. SomethingAwful crowd is older, wiser. Reddit crowd is younger, brasher.
>The psychology of wanting to escape the shadow of the parent is going to fester the slightest scrape into a full-blown wound.
ReplyDeleteYou don't get TEST if you think they care that people still regard them as pets, and if you think TEST are going to fight a proper war with the CFC to convince a bunch of publords that they're not pets, you're completely wrong
The only thing likely to happen is TEST vs FA and maybe some HBC vs CFC friendly fights later on (we already do these though)
It's not convincing the "publords", it's convincing their membership.
DeleteAnd both coalitions are in a state of boredom ... so who knows how anything will escalate under those conditions.
As a member of Dreddit, I do think that it matters to our leadership whether or not the rest of null/the rest of EVE thinks that we rely purely on Goons and PL for our strength. The obvious way to show this is to defeat the Goons without the aid of PL.
DeleteBesides, we *do* need an actual war that people are going to be really interested in. The blue nullsec isn't doing us any good, and our forums reflect that.
@Poetic if you're in TEST and you still think we're goon pets you're not going to be convinced by anything short of a full sov war which neither side wants for loads of different reasons.
DeleteYes, we're bored, and we hopefully will go and shoot FA and some of the CFC for gudfights, but that's as far as it's going to be allowed to escalate.
@Kainotomiu Ronuken you've been a member of TEST for 4 months now so you won't have had that much contact with the goons, but for a lot of people shooting the goons would be shooting our best e-friend, it's never going to realistically happen.
Also it really doesn't matter what the rest of EVE thinks. Highsec is a long way away and honestly, who gives a fuck about what EN24 or some bloggers are saying about us? And as for the rest of null, -a- loved to say how "they're only winning because GEWNS" and it didn't really affect the outcome of that war.
I don't think TEST are Goon pets. I just think it's a case of perception and self-esteem. TEST is going to want to prove somehow, someway that they're equal partners with Goonswarm. That they're not tagalong lackeys of the bees.
DeleteInb4 calling TEST members "Testies, Sons of Goons" becomes the new insult.
ReplyDeleteHmm. I'm not really convinced that it's a 'wound that cannot heal'. FA and Zagdul have pretty much always been laughingstocks, and I find it more likely that Goons will throw FA under the bus than jeopardize their relationship with TEST. That might be bad for the internal cohesion of the CFC in the long run, but I don't think we're going to see near-term open conflict between the two coalitions.
ReplyDeleteIf it came to blows, TEST would fall to the Goons in short order. The most capable leaders and FCs in TEST also happen to be old and loyal Goons.
ReplyDeleteI suppose that the build up of TEST was always just meant to provide some sort of null-sec opponent for the now-ever-bored Goons, since no one else in null seems willing to challenge the CFC.
But, in the end, I'd expect the Goon members of TEST to rally behind the Goon flag, leaving TEST to muddle along and eventually get ground under foot.
I would agree if we were discussing TEST vs Goonswarm. HBC vs CFC is a very different thing and there are several good and capable leaders in HBC that are not goons.
DeletePlease list the FCs and leaders of test which are Goons. (They're not, you are talking pubbie bullshit)
DeleteEveryone predicting all-out war between CFC and HBC (one that will actually pit Goons vs. Test) fails to account for the basic rationality of the leadership on both sides. It would not serve the economic interests of either to allow the inevitable flare-ups to escalate into "total war." At worst, you'll see corps and even alliances that can't maintain discipline purged from the coalitions. That will only happen after a series of diplomatic incidents, and the purges will occur under pretext.
ReplyDeleteThose incidents will set the forums and news sites on fire for a while, and then nothing of real consequence will come of it. Goonswarm got to where it is by developing a section dedicated to managing personalities; both insiders and outsiders. They'll bring Test along.
A major dust-up doesn't necessarily mean all-out war. I don't predict all-out war ... but certainly a large enough conflict that drives howm the message to the membership (and those outside) that they are now separate entities.
DeleteHere's what everyone doesn't get --- Goons and Test may not agree on anything, they might even fight each other for shits and giggles, they may sperg on forums and in local ... but when one amongst the publords rises to fight them or any of the 1/2 dozen wannabee king killers comes to fight, Test and Goons will turn around bash them into the ground and then continue on confident in the knowledge that your opinion doesn't matter.
ReplyDeleteThe smart move for both sides would be to pull a RvB - constant controlled war. Entertainment for their teeming masses, training for their next generation of FCs, push the evolution of the meta game, and no structure shoots required. Sounds pretty nice, actually.
ReplyDeleteAnd the diplomats say nope.
ReplyDeleteI don't think we'll see a CFC vs HBC conflict that would ever pit the Goons against TEST.
ReplyDeleteAs someone mentioned above, a lot of key TEST members happen to be Goons, as well. TEST would likely remain neutral, or, if pressured by the rest of HBC, would just rejoin CFC.
And, without TEST, HBC will get obliterated by CFC.